Saturday, March 24, 2018

Thinking about long term investments today I found myself thinking about alternative energy and renewable energy. Solar, and fuel cells mainly.

Campbells Soup has been using more solar, and fuel cell energy lately.

I like Tesla for solar long term. Their solar roof tiles are a fantastic application for solar. I'm not a believer in solar for distributed power.

I'm not sure about fuel cells yet. At the moment I'm invested in Fuel Cell energy (FCEL) who looks like they'll be profitable about 2019. At less that $2 a share, it looks like a tryable long term investment.

Overall I think alternatives like fuel cells that effeciently use natural gas will become main stream for commercial and industrial, and solar will win out for residential.

Sunday, March 18, 2018

Dawson Geophysical appears as though it's poised to make a comeback like Ion Geophysical has been doing since the US shifted focus to leading the world in oil production.

The thing here though, is that Ion specializes in ocean exploration, and Dawson focuses on inland exploration.

The US is looking to open the coastlines to more drilling. Hence Ions comeback.

However, if states ecide they want to block drilling, that could force exploration inland, which would benefit Dawson.

I'm not sure where to guess for a price Target on Dawson. They're losing money each quarter now, but they're also down a lot in the last 5 years. I'd like to put a target at $10 by the end of the year. I'm just not sure on this one.

Saturday, March 17, 2018

A few years ago people were asking if Activision Blizzard overpaid for King. I'd say the answer is no.

Right now King games occupy top spots in the Google Play stores Top Grossing list.

Activision is down 9.5% over the last week, like a lot of companies are. I see a buying opportunity, and my price Target is $84 in the next 6 weeks.
Glu missed big time on Q4 earnings. Taking a look at the Google Play store I see they've got two games at positions 160 and 223 in the "top grossing" listing of the store.

At first glance, I'm thinking this stocks going to dip somewhere around $3 in the near future.

It looks like they've got new leadership, with a ground up built development team, and a deal for a Disney licensed game in the works.

If this game takes off like their previous hits, GLUU should be in for a roughly 50% jump by the end of the year.

It does worry me that Disney has moved to licensing titles vs developing games, however.
Based on this graph, I see MTEM getting to $15 a share around the end of March. If I'm right, that's a 70%+ gain in a few weeks.

As you can see in my screenshot, I hold a position in this company. I plan on holding until it hits that $15 mark, then moving most of the equity into something else.

I got a partial scare last week, as my average cost is $9.25, and I almost sold at $9.99, but I have faith in a spike happening.
I like Fifth Third bank over Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and the rest.

They've kept their hands relatively clean compared to the competition in recent years. I believe while Wells Fargo spends awhile under a microscope, FITB is going to welcome leery customers looking for a safe place to keep their money.
Say what you want, but it looks to me like Trump has helped Twitter increase shareholder value over 130% over the last year. Given it took me a year of missing Trump's tweets to sign up, and knowing I'm not the only one, Trump's provocative tweets can only draw more users to Twitter. More users, more revenue.

That's been the way internet advertising has worked since I did it years ago. Provocative people draw attention, just like everyone slows down to see a car wreck, everyone has to see what Trump's going to say next.

Given Twitter's still down about 20% from it's IPO, I think Twitter is still a good buy right now.

Sunday, March 11, 2018

Ion Geophysical is a company that surveys the ocean, mostly for oil and energy companies. The reason they're up right now is they provide products and services for the upcoming oil rush, in much the same way shovel companies supplied the gold rushes in the past.

I like the pattern in this picture. I see a jump about every 45 days, or half quarter. Based on this pattern I see $34 a share by the end of March.

In the long run, I see Ion Geophysical getting closer to $100 a share based on what they do and how hard ahead they are of the other companies that do similar.

Mostly, I like the consistient stair pattern. It looks safe to take short gains with.
The NASDAQ website has a handy tool for looking up insider trade records about companies. Basically this covers when members of the board of directors, company officers such as the CEO, or investors who own 10% or more of a companies outstanding shares buy or sell shares of the company they run.

This information is nice to have, a sell off from a CEO can indicate an upcoming weakness in the company, or just a move to cover taxes. The more interesting thing, is when these people are buying shares of their company. This is typically a sign of confidence in the companies future, putting their money where their mouth is so to speak.

I like to look for groups of people, rather than just one insider buying. If the entire board of directors is buying, they must know there's good news coming.


SEC Insider Lookup
I started using an app called Robinhood at the beginning of the year. It's an easy to use stock trading app that's perfect for first time stock traders because there are zero commissions and you can start like I did, with $20 and just keep putting a few dollars a week into your account.

I've been putting $20 a week into my account since the beginning of the year, and already I'm at $250. It adds up quick.

Robinhood is good in that there's no commissions for trades, it simplifies everything and focuses on trading so you're not bogged down with information, customer service is prompt and courteous, the app works as advertised, and it has enough information about companies to make decisions.